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TX-15 (South Texas)
House · Texas · Cook rating: Toss-up
A test of Republican gains with Hispanic voters
Bobby Pulido
Monica De La Cruz
From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker
40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026
Sentiment gap
Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100
Pulido +1 more positive
Name recall
Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate
Pulido 11 of 12, first 8
De La Cruz 11 of 12, first 3
AI vs Cook rating
Cook Political Report rating, Toss-up, against the AI models' lean
AI and Cook agree
Model agreement
How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one
100%agree
3 of 3 assistants · 1 declined
0 Pulido3 toss-up0 De La Cruz1 no call
Who the AI models favor
Of 4 AI models asked about TX-15 today, 3 describe the race between Monica De La Cruz and Bobby Pulido as a toss-up and 1 declines to assess it.
Pulido
Democrat
De La Cruz
Republican
- 0 favor Pulido
- 3 toss-up
- 0 favor De La Cruz
- 1 no call
Three of four assistants call it a toss-up.
Each assistant’s call
“There is no consensus across the forecasts. The latest polling cited here favors Pulido, while The Hill/DDHQ models narrowly favor De La Cruz”
Google AI ModeDeclined“Major election rating entities ... have generally characterized the district as a Toss-up”
“The race is genuinely close, and forecasts disagree.”
Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”
Polls these assistants cite range from Bobby Pulido +5 (Texas Southern University, Aug 18-22) to Bobby Pulido +13 (Normington Petts / House Majority PAC, Sept 24-28) (7 different polls and averages).
Changed since Oct 22, 2026
- Google AI ModeDeclined to say
GeminiToss-up
PerplexityToss-up- Overall leanLean DToss-up
Strengths and weaknesses AI cites
Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.
Bobby Pulido
Local roots & ties
77“His long career, family roots and familiarity with the region's cultural life have made him a familiar figure to many Tejano music fans.”ChatGPT
“His decades-long Tejano music career provides deep cultural familiarity in the Rio Grande Valley, and supporters view him as a moderate focused on community.”
Google AI Mode“By positioning himself as a trusted, culturally resonant figure reminiscent of the region's traditional Democratic roots”
GeminiRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Healthcare policy
67“He supports protecting and strengthening Medicare and lowering health-care and prescription-drug costs, including through drug-price negotiation.”ChatGPT
“He highlights healthcare as a deeply personal issue in South Texas, pointing out that many families struggle with access, wait times, and high prescription costs.”
Gemini“Pulido frames the issue as a systemic failure of affordability, calling for broad structural reforms to ensure coverage.”
Google AI ModeRaised by 3 of 4 models.
Unclear or generic attribute
67“Focusing his platform on lowering costs.”
Gemini“Emphasizes reducing costs for working families and challenging corporate price increases.”ChatGPT
Raised by 2 of 4 models.
Monica De La Cruz
Experience & qualifications
70“Supporters praise De La Cruz's legislative record on housing and veterans' healthcare alongside her small business background.”
Google AI Mode“She has served two terms and is seeking a third, giving her an established electoral and governing record.”ChatGPT
“De La Cruz leverages her legislative record—specifically pointing to her accomplishments in Congress and local roots—to argue she understands the policy mechanics needed to deliver for South Texas.”
GeminiRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Local roots & ties
65“De La Cruz leverages her legislative record—specifically pointing to her accomplishments in Congress and local roots—to argue she understands the policy mechanics needed to deliver for South Texas.”
Gemini“Established ties to Republican and law-enforcement constituencies”
Perplexity“She publicly pushed back against specific ICE enforcement actions targeting local Hispanic families/workers and advocated for targeted seasonal foreign worker visas, tailoring her brand to the nuances of the Rio Grande Valley.”
Google AI ModeRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?
7% of what AI says about Pulido is about the issues voters rank highest
8% of what AI says about De La Cruz is about the issues voters rank highest
| What voters care about | Bobby Pulido | Monica De La Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| cost of living | 601 mentions · 1 models | 681 mentions · 1 models |
| healthcare | 675 mentions · 3 models | 526 mentions · 3 models |
| immigration enforcement and border policy, border security and immigration enforcement | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.
What AI says voters care about
Top issues
- 1.Cost of living
- 2.Healthcare
- 3.Immigration enforcement and border policy
- 4.Border security and immigration enforcement
Party trusted more on
- EconomySplit
- HealthcareDemocrats
- ImmigrationSplit
Enthusiasm edge
Democrats. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.
Polls the AI models cite
As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.
| Poll | Dates | Pulido | De La Cruz | Cited by | Vs reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern University (independent poll) | Aug 26, 2026 | 50 | 45 | Real polling reference | |
| Texas Southern UniversityLV | Oct 13-16 | 51 | 44 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| Normington Petts / House Majority PACLV | Sept 24-28 | 54 | 41 | ChatGPT | 8 pts more Pulido |
| Texas Southern UniversityLV | Aug 18-22 | 50 | 45 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| July | 51 | 45 | Perplexity | within 3 pts | |
| PollingSource average | — | 50.7 | 44.7 | Perplexity | within 3 pts |
Where the answers came from
Photos: Bobby Pulido (CC BY 4.0 (Kim-bodia)); Monica De La Cruz (Uncertain (Commons says CC BY-SA 4.0; likely official House portrait)), via Wikimedia Commons.
This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).
Cite this
Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "TX-15 (South Texas): What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/tx-15
Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.