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Alaska Senate
Senate · Alaska · Cook rating: Toss-up
A former statewide winner challenges the incumbent
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Mary Peltola
Dan Sullivan
From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker
40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026
Sentiment gap
Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100
Peltola +3 more positive
Name recall
Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate
Peltola 6 of 12, first 5
Sullivan 7 of 12, first 2
AI vs Cook rating
Cook Political Report rating, Toss-up, against the AI models' lean
AI and Cook agree
Model agreement
How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one
50%agree
2 of 4 assistants
2 Peltola2 toss-up0 Sullivan
Who the AI models favor
Of 4 AI models asked about the Alaska Senate race today, 2 say Mary Peltola is narrowly favored over Dan Sullivan and 2 describe it as a toss-up.
Peltola
Democrat
Sullivan
Republican
- 2 favor Peltola
- 2 toss-up
- 0 favor Sullivan
The assistants are split: 2 favor Peltola, 0 favor Sullivan, 2 call it a toss-up.
Each assistant’s call
“recent polls show Peltola and Sullivan separated by only a few percentage points, and neither candidate has a decisive polling advantage”
“Democrat Mary Peltola holds a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan ... analysts view the race as highly competitive and a statistical coin-flip”
“widely viewed as a highly competitive, closely contested race; forecasters differ slightly on who holds the advantage”
“Recent polls also show a close race favoring Peltola”
Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”
Polls these assistants cite range from Dan Sullivan +1 (Quantus Insights, Sept 28-30) to Mary Peltola +5.6 (InsiderAdvantage, Oct 9-10) (8 different polls and averages).
Changed since Oct 22, 2026
GeminiToss-up
PerplexityPeltola
Strengths and weaknesses AI cites
Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.
Mary Peltola
Trump & party alignment
67“High-profile candidates are intentionally distancing themselves from the national party structure to appeal to Alaska’s independent streak.”
Google AI Mode“A moderate, bipartisan appeal has traditionally found strong traction among non-aligned voters, even in a historically red state.”
Gemini“She built a political identity around fisheries, rural communities, Alaska Native issues and her willingness to break with Democratic Party leadership on some votes.”ChatGPT
Raised by 4 of 4 models.
Ideology & policy platform
66“Peltola has pushed to reduce salmon bycatch by industrial trawlers, protect Bristol Bay and support Alaska's fishing communities.”ChatGPT
“She emphasizes local resource issues—such as defending fisheries, subsistence rights, and supporting certain development projects (like oil and mining).”
Gemini“She also supports oil and gas development, including Willow, which helps her resist being portrayed as a conventional national Democrat opposed to Alaska’s resource economy.”
PerplexityRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Dan Sullivan
Experience & qualifications
74“He has spent more than a decade in the Senate and previously served in Alaska state government, the State Department and the Marine Corps Reserve.”ChatGPT
“As a two-term incumbent U.S. Senator, Sullivan has built his career around defending Alaska’s traditional energy resources and expanding its military infrastructure.”
Google AI Mode“Sullivan can point to an established record on military interests, energy development, and infrastructure.”
PerplexityRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?
0% of what AI says about Peltola is about the issues voters rank highest
0% of what AI says about Sullivan is about the issues voters rank highest
| What voters care about | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| cost of living | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| political corruption | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| ranked-choice voting repeal | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| democracy | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.
What AI says voters care about
Top issues
- 1.Cost of living
- 2.Political corruption
- 3.Ranked-choice voting repeal
- 4.Democracy
Party trusted more on
- EconomyRepublicans
- HealthcareDemocrats
- ImmigrationRepublicans
Enthusiasm edge
Even. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.
Polls the AI models cite
As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.
| Poll | Dates | Peltola | Sullivan | Cited by | Vs reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin average | Oct 3, 2026 | 48.5 | 45 | Real polling reference | |
| AARP | — | 46 | 41 | Perplexity | within 3 pts |
| — | 51 | 49 | Perplexity | within 3 pts | |
| Data for ProgressLV | Oct 8-16 | 51 | 49 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| InsiderAdvantageLV | Oct 9-10 | 48.2 | 42.6 | Google AI Mode | within 3 pts |
| Data for Progress | Oct 8-16 | 51 | 49 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
Where the answers came from
Photos: Mary Peltola (Public domain (official House photo, 2022)); Dan Sullivan (Public domain (official Senate photo)), via Wikimedia Commons.
This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).
Cite this
Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "Alaska Senate: What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/alaska-senate
Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.