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Michigan Senate
Senate · Michigan · Cook rating: Toss-up
Open Democratic-held seat after Gary Peters retired
Abdul El-Sayed
Mike Rogers
From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker
40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026
Sentiment gap
Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100
El-Sayed +5 more positive
Name recall
Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate
El-Sayed 6 of 12, first 6
Rogers 6 of 12, first 0
AI vs Cook rating
Cook Political Report rating, Toss-up, against the AI models' lean
AI leans more Democratic than Cook
Model agreement
How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one
100%agree
4 of 4 assistants
4 El-Sayed0 toss-up0 Rogers
Who the AI models favor
All 4 AI models asked about the Michigan Senate race today say Abdul El-Sayed is narrowly favored over Mike Rogers.
El-Sayed
Democrat
Rogers
Republican
- 4 favor El-Sayed
- 0 toss-up
- 0 favor Rogers
All four assistants favor El-Sayed.
Each assistant’s call
“The latest forecasts I found assign Abdul El-Sayed a higher modeled chance of winning than Mike Rogers, while the polling shows a competitive race rather than a decisive lead.”
“classified as a highly competitive, razor-thin toss-up, though El-Sayed holds a narrow edge in most recent polls and a clear advantage in prediction markets”
“Election forecasters and prediction markets generally view Abdul El-Sayed as holding a slight advantage or leaning ahead in the race”
“Abdul El-Sayed is favored, but the race looks close.”
Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”
Polls these assistants cite range from Mike Rogers +2 (Tyson Group, Oct 8) to Abdul El-Sayed +6 (Wedgewood Polls, Oct 9) (7 different polls and averages).
Changed since Oct 22, 2026
Google AI ModeEl-Sayed
Strengths and weaknesses AI cites
Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.
Abdul El-Sayed
Personal & professional background
70“El-Sayed is a physician with a background in public health who previously served as Detroit's health department director.”ChatGPT
“As a progressive public health advocate aiming to become the nation's first Muslim U.S. Senator”
Google AI Mode“As an epidemiologist, former Detroit health director, and prominent progressive voice”
GeminiRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Mike Rogers
Personal & professional background
67“Rogers is a former U.S. representative from Michigan who served in Congress from 2001 to 2015 and chaired the House Intelligence Committee.”ChatGPT
“he is a former seven-term congressman, Army officer, and FBI agent, giving him a strong national-security profile and an argument for readiness to serve in the Senate”
Perplexity“Rogers is an Army veteran, a former FBI agent, and a 14-year veteran of the U. S. House of Representatives who previously chaired the high-profile House Intelligence Committee.”
GeminiRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?
0% of what AI says about El-Sayed is about the issues voters rank highest
1% of what AI says about Rogers is about the issues voters rank highest
| What voters care about | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| cost of living, economy | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| healthcare | Not linked by AI | 601 mentions · 1 models |
| election integrity | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.
What AI says voters care about
Top issues
- 1.Cost of living
- 2.Economy
- 3.Healthcare
- 4.Election integrity
Party trusted more on
- EconomyDemocrats
- HealthcareDemocrats
- ImmigrationRepublicans
Enthusiasm edge
Democrats. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.
Polls the AI models cite
As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.
| Poll | Dates | El-Sayed | Rogers | Cited by | Vs reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin average | Oct 5, 2026 | 47.8 | 43.8 | Real polling reference | |
| Marist | Oct 18 | 50 | 48 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| Rasmussen Reports | Oct 14 | 46 | 44 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 10 | 48 | 46 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| Wedgewood Polls | Oct 9 | 53 | 47 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| Tyson Group | Oct 8 | 44 | 46 | ChatGPT | 6 pts more Rogers |
Where the answers came from
Photos: Abdul El-Sayed (CC BY-SA 4.0 (Conlan Houston)); Mike Rogers (Public domain (US Army)), via Wikimedia Commons.
This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).
Cite this
Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "Michigan Senate: What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/michigan-senate
Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.