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Maine Senate

Senate · Maine · Cook rating: Toss-up

Collins is the last Republican senator from a state Harris won; Democrats likely need this seat

Troy Jackson

Troy Jackson

Susan Collins

Susan Collins

RepublicanIncumbentCampaign site

From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker

40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026

Sentiment gap

Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100

Jackson
65
Collins
59

Jackson +6 more positive

Name recall

Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate

Jackson 7 of 12, first 3

Collins 6 of 12, first 4

AI vs Cook rating

Cook Political Report rating, Toss-up, against the AI models' lean

AI modelsLean D
CookToss-up

AI leans more Democratic than Cook

Model agreement

How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one

75%agree

3 of 4 assistants

3 Jackson1 toss-up0 Collins

Who the AI models favor

Of 4 AI models asked about the Maine Senate race today, 3 say Troy Jackson is narrowly favored over Susan Collins and 1 describes it as a toss-up.

Troy Jackson

Jackson

Democrat

Susan Collins

Collins

Republican

  • 3 favor Jackson
  • 1 toss-up
  • 0 favor Collins

Three of four assistants favor Jackson.

Each assistant’s call

Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”

Polls these assistants cite range from Susan Collins +9 (AARP) to Troy Jackson +6 (Fox News, Oct 16-20) (10 different polls and averages).

Changed since Oct 22, 2026

  • Google AI ModeToss-up
  • GeminiJackson

Strengths and weaknesses AI cites

Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.

Troy Jackson

Troy Jackson

  • Constituent service74
    “Throughout his career in Augusta, he built a reputation as a fierce advocate for workers' rights, timber industries, and rural communities.”Google AI Mode
    “His blue-collar, working-class background in northern Maine resonates with a solid base of voters who view him as an authentic local voice.”Gemini
    “Jackson places greater emphasis on redistribution, progressive taxation and direct financial support for lower- and middle-income households.”ChatGPT

    Raised by 4 of 4 models.

  • Trump & party alignment67
    “Jackson supports a federal right to abortion, stronger civil-rights protections for LGBTQ+ people, abolishing ICE and ending U.S. military funding to Israel.”ChatGPT
    “Jackson’s background roots him deeply in blue-collar, rural Maine issues, allowing him to campaign as an everyday working person rather than a career insider.”Gemini
    “Troy Jackson takes an openly progressive stance by demanding that ICE be fully dismantled and abolished.”Google AI Mode

    Raised by 4 of 4 models.

Susan Collins

Susan Collins

  • Experience & qualifications77
    “Proponents view Senator Collins as a dependable, down-to-earth lawmaker who uses her seniority and chair on the Appropriations Committee”Google AI Mode
    “She holds significant institutional power as a key leader on major committees, including serving as Chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee.”Gemini
    “Collins chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, which plays a central role in determining federal spending.”ChatGPT

    Raised by 4 of 4 models.

  • Legislative experience & record68
    “She holds a historic legislative attendance record, having cast more than 10,000 consecutive roll-call votes without missing a single one.”Gemini
    “She campaigns on a record of bipartisan independence, pointing out instances where she has voted against her own party more than any other senator.”Google AI Mode
    “Collins can emphasize her seniority, her position as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and her ability to secure federal funding for Maine.”ChatGPT

    Raised by 4 of 4 models.

  • Constituent service71
    “Her campaign frequently highlights over $1.5 billion brought to Maine to fund local infrastructure, hospitals, and 45 community fire stations.”Google AI Mode
    “Voters can be unhappy with the party controlling Washington while still supporting an incumbent they believe represents their state's interests.”ChatGPT
    “Her deep institutional roots in Maine make her a formidable campaigner”Gemini

    Raised by 3 of 4 models.

  • Healthcare policy68
    “She highlights her success in authoring a $50 billion rural healthcare fund to save struggling hospitals. She supports market reforms, like capping insulin prices at $35 and expediting cheaper generic drugs.”Google AI Mode
    “The available results don’t establish a comparably specific Collins proposal.”Perplexity

    Raised by 2 of 4 models.

Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?

Troy Jackson

1% of what AI says about Jackson is about the issues voters rank highest

Susan Collins

2% of what AI says about Collins is about the issues voters rank highest

How favorably AI discusses each candidate on the issues voters care about, scored 1 to 100
What voters care aboutTroy JacksonSusan Collins
cost of living, energy costsNot linked by AINot linked by AI
healthcare, social security721 mentions · 1 models682 mentions · 2 models

Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.

What AI says voters care about

Top issues

  1. 1.Cost of living
  2. 2.Energy costs
  3. 3.Healthcare
  4. 4.Social security

Party trusted more on

  • EconomySplit
  • HealthcareDemocrats
  • ImmigrationSplit

Enthusiasm edge

Democrats. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.

Polls the AI models cite

As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.

Polls cited in AI answers, with each candidate's number and how far each poll sits from the real polling reference
PollDatesJacksonCollinsCited byVs reality
270toWin averageOct 9, 202649.247.2Real polling reference
Fox NewsLVOct 16-204949ChatGPTwithin 3 pts
Washington Post/George Mason UniversitySept 30-Oct 55046ChatGPTwithin 3 pts
Polling average (8 pollsters)Oct 1449.447.3ChatGPTwithin 3 pts
Fox NewsAOct 16-204943Google AI Mode4 pts more Jackson
MaristRVOct 1-45147ChatGPTwithin 3 pts

Where the answers came from

Photos: Troy Jackson (CC0 1.0 (ArenLeBrun)); Susan Collins (Public domain (official Senate photo)), via Wikimedia Commons.

This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).

Cite this

Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "Maine Senate: What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/maine-senate

Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.