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Maine Senate
Senate · Maine · Cook rating: Toss-up
Collins is the last Republican senator from a state Harris won; Democrats likely need this seat

Troy Jackson

Susan Collins
From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker
40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026
Sentiment gap
Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100
Jackson +6 more positive
Name recall
Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate
Jackson 7 of 12, first 3
Collins 6 of 12, first 4
AI vs Cook rating
Cook Political Report rating, Toss-up, against the AI models' lean
AI leans more Democratic than Cook
Model agreement
How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one
75%agree
3 of 4 assistants
3 Jackson1 toss-up0 Collins
Who the AI models favor
Of 4 AI models asked about the Maine Senate race today, 3 say Troy Jackson is narrowly favored over Susan Collins and 1 describes it as a toss-up.

Jackson
Democrat

Collins
Republican
- 3 favor Jackson
- 1 toss-up
- 0 favor Collins
Three of four assistants favor Jackson.
Each assistant’s call
“Troy Jackson is narrowly favored, but the race is effectively a toss-up.”
“highly competitive, with various polling data and forecasting markets pointing to a tight, narrow contest”
“RealClearPolling averages show Troy Jackson holding a narrow edge; prediction markets give Troy Jackson a favored edge”
“Troy Jackson is narrowly favored, but the race remains a toss-up.”
Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”
Polls these assistants cite range from Susan Collins +9 (AARP) to Troy Jackson +6 (Fox News, Oct 16-20) (10 different polls and averages).
Changed since Oct 22, 2026
Google AI ModeToss-up
GeminiJackson
Strengths and weaknesses AI cites
Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.

Troy Jackson
Constituent service
74
“Throughout his career in Augusta, he built a reputation as a fierce advocate for workers' rights, timber industries, and rural communities.”
Google AI Mode
“His blue-collar, working-class background in northern Maine resonates with a solid base of voters who view him as an authentic local voice.”
Gemini
“Jackson places greater emphasis on redistribution, progressive taxation and direct financial support for lower- and middle-income households.”ChatGPT
Raised by 4 of 4 models.
Trump & party alignment
67
“Jackson supports a federal right to abortion, stronger civil-rights protections for LGBTQ+ people, abolishing ICE and ending U.S. military funding to Israel.”ChatGPT
“Jackson’s background roots him deeply in blue-collar, rural Maine issues, allowing him to campaign as an everyday working person rather than a career insider.”
Gemini
“Troy Jackson takes an openly progressive stance by demanding that ICE be fully dismantled and abolished.”
Google AI Mode
Raised by 4 of 4 models.

Susan Collins
Experience & qualifications
77
“Proponents view Senator Collins as a dependable, down-to-earth lawmaker who uses her seniority and chair on the Appropriations Committee”
Google AI Mode
“She holds significant institutional power as a key leader on major committees, including serving as Chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee.”
Gemini
“Collins chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, which plays a central role in determining federal spending.”ChatGPT
Raised by 4 of 4 models.
Legislative experience & record
68
“She holds a historic legislative attendance record, having cast more than 10,000 consecutive roll-call votes without missing a single one.”
Gemini
“She campaigns on a record of bipartisan independence, pointing out instances where she has voted against her own party more than any other senator.”
Google AI Mode
“Collins can emphasize her seniority, her position as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and her ability to secure federal funding for Maine.”ChatGPT
Raised by 4 of 4 models.
Constituent service
71
“Her campaign frequently highlights over $1.5 billion brought to Maine to fund local infrastructure, hospitals, and 45 community fire stations.”
Google AI Mode
“Voters can be unhappy with the party controlling Washington while still supporting an incumbent they believe represents their state's interests.”ChatGPT
“Her deep institutional roots in Maine make her a formidable campaigner”
Gemini
Raised by 3 of 4 models.
Healthcare policy
68
“She highlights her success in authoring a $50 billion rural healthcare fund to save struggling hospitals. She supports market reforms, like capping insulin prices at $35 and expediting cheaper generic drugs.”
Google AI Mode
“The available results don’t establish a comparably specific Collins proposal.”
Perplexity
Raised by 2 of 4 models.
Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?

1% of what AI says about Jackson is about the issues voters rank highest

2% of what AI says about Collins is about the issues voters rank highest
| What voters care about | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins |
|---|---|---|
| cost of living, energy costs | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| healthcare, social security | 721 mentions · 1 models | 682 mentions · 2 models |
Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.
What AI says voters care about
Top issues
- 1.Cost of living
- 2.Energy costs
- 3.Healthcare
- 4.Social security
Party trusted more on
- EconomySplit
- HealthcareDemocrats
- ImmigrationSplit
Enthusiasm edge
Democrats. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.
Polls the AI models cite
As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.
| Poll | Dates | Jackson | Collins | Cited by | Vs reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin average | Oct 9, 2026 | 49.2 | 47.2 | Real polling reference | |
| Fox NewsLV | Oct 16-20 | 49 | 49 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| Washington Post/George Mason University | Sept 30-Oct 5 | 50 | 46 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| Polling average (8 pollsters) | Oct 14 | 49.4 | 47.3 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| Fox NewsA | Oct 16-20 | 49 | 43 | 4 pts more Jackson | |
| MaristRV | Oct 1-4 | 51 | 47 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
Where the answers came from
Photos: Troy Jackson (CC0 1.0 (ArenLeBrun)); Susan Collins (Public domain (official Senate photo)), via Wikimedia Commons.
This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).
Cite this
Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "Maine Senate: What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/maine-senate
Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.