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North Carolina Senate
Senate · North Carolina · Cook rating: Likely D
Open seat after Thom Tillis retired; a top Democratic pickup chance
Roy Cooper
Michael Whatley
From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker
40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026
Sentiment gap
Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100
Cooper +18 more positive
Name recall
Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate
Cooper 7 of 12, first 7
Whatley 4 of 12, first 0
AI vs Cook rating
Cook Political Report rating, Likely D, against the AI models' lean
AI and Cook agree
Model agreement
How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one
100%agree
4 of 4 assistants
4 Cooper0 toss-up0 Whatley
Who the AI models favor
All 4 AI models asked about the North Carolina Senate race today say Roy Cooper is clearly favored over Michael Whatley.
Cooper
Democrat
Whatley
Republican
- 4 favor Cooper
- 0 toss-up
- 0 favor Whatley
All four assistants favor Cooper.
Each assistant’s call
“Cooper is ahead by roughly 10 percentage points in polling averages, and external markets assign him a very high implied probability of victory”
“Roy Cooper is heavily favored to win the open North Carolina U.S. Senate race against Republican Michael Whatley”
“election forecasts and public opinion polls show Roy Cooper holding a significant advantage”
“Roy Cooper is heavily favored over Michael Whatley.”
Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”
Polls these assistants cite range from Roy Cooper +7 (East Carolina University, Sept 30-Oct 3) to Roy Cooper +14 (WRAL/SurveyUSA, Oct 1-7) (7 different polls and averages).
Strengths and weaknesses AI cites
Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.
Roy Cooper
Experience & qualifications
75“Supporters emphasize his executive experience and his history of negotiating and working alongside a Republican-controlled state General Assembly.”
Gemini“Having spent nearly 40 years in public service as a state legislator, Attorney General, and two-term Governor, Cooper enters the race with extensive experience.”
Google AI Mode“His career includes legislative negotiations, statewide administration and direct responsibility for state agencies.”ChatGPT
Raised by 4 of 4 models.
Healthcare policy
67“Cooper points to the coverage of over 700,000 North Carolinians via Medicaid expansion as a bipartisan achievement.”
Google AI Mode“Wants to reverse federal Medicaid cuts, restore Affordable Care Act tax credits and expand efforts to negotiate lower prescription-drug prices.”ChatGPT
Raised by 3 of 4 models.
Personal & professional background
71“His record as governor gives him a credible argument that he can work with Republicans rather than simply follow the national Democratic Party.”ChatGPT
“his supporters have reported higher levels of excitement and urgency regarding the election's real-world impacts.”
Google AI ModeRaised by 2 of 4 models.
Michael Whatley
Not raised by at least 2 models yet.
Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?
4% of what AI says about Cooper is about the issues voters rank highest
2% of what AI says about Whatley is about the issues voters rank highest
| What voters care about | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley |
|---|---|---|
| economy, cost of living | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| healthcare, social security and medicare | 654 mentions · 3 models | 572 mentions · 2 models |
Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.
What AI says voters care about
Top issues
- 1.Economy
- 2.Cost of living
- 3.Healthcare
- 4.Social security and medicare
Party trusted more on
- EconomySplit
- HealthcareDemocrats
- ImmigrationRepublicans
Enthusiasm edge
Democrats. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.
Polls the AI models cite
As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.
| Poll | Dates | Cooper | Whatley | Cited by | Vs reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin average | Sep 30, 2026 | 50.7 | 41.5 | Real polling reference | |
| RealClearPolling average | Sept 15-Oct 20 | 50.6 | 40.7 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| Harper Polling | Oct 18-20 | 49 | 39 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| Trafalgar Group | Oct 8-10 | 49 | 41 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| WRAL/SurveyUSA | Oct 1-7 | 54 | 40 | ChatGPT | 4.8 pts more Cooper |
| Elon University | Sept 29-Oct 8 | 52 | 39 | ChatGPT | 3.8 pts more Cooper |
Where the answers came from
Photos: Roy Cooper (CC BY-SA 4.0 (NewtonsBucket)); Michael Whatley (CC BY-SA 4.0 (Gage Skidmore)), via Wikimedia Commons.
This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).
Cite this
Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "North Carolina Senate: What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/north-carolina-senate
Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.