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New Hampshire Senate
Senate · New Hampshire · Cook rating: Lean D
Open Democratic-held seat after Jeanne Shaheen retired
Chris Pappas
John E. Sununu
From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker
40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026
Sentiment gap
Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100
Pappas +10 more positive
Name recall
Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate
Pappas 3 of 12, first 2
Sununu 3 of 12, first 1
AI vs Cook rating
Cook Political Report rating, Lean D, against the AI models' lean
AI and Cook agree
Model agreement
How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one
100%agree
3 of 3 assistants · 1 declined
3 Pappas0 toss-up0 Sununu1 no call
Who the AI models favor
Of 4 AI models asked about the New Hampshire Senate race today, 3 say Chris Pappas is favored over John E. Sununu and 1 declines to assess it.
Pappas
Democrat
Sununu
Republican
- 3 favor Pappas
- 0 toss-up
- 0 favor Sununu
- 1 no call
Three of four assistants favor Pappas.
Each assistant’s call
“the latest published forecasts show Pappas ahead in their models, while polls generally measure a lead of several points for him”
Google AI ModeDeclined“Democrat Chris Pappas is generally favored in public polls and election forecasts over Republican John E. Sununu”
“Chris Pappas is favored, but the race remains competitive. Recent polling gives him a modest lead”
Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”
Polls these assistants cite range from Chris Pappas +5 (New York Times/Siena) to Chris Pappas +8 (University of New Hampshire) (6 different polls and averages).
Changed since Oct 22, 2026
- Google AI ModeDeclined to say
Strengths and weaknesses AI cites
Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.
Chris Pappas
Experience & qualifications
73“Served on the New Hampshire Executive Council and in the state legislature; also helped run his family's historic restaurant business in Manchester.”
Gemini“His congressional service gives voters a current record to evaluate, including his work on veterans' benefits, prescription-drug costs, infrastructure, and recovery programs.”ChatGPT
“Pappas’s strengths include his experience representing New Hampshire’s 1st District since 2019”
PerplexityRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Ideology & policy platform
66“His platforms center on building up the middle class, lowering energy and healthcare costs, and codifying reproductive rights federally.”
Google AI Mode“He has supported lowering prescription drug costs and initiatives addressing substance use, recovery, and fentanyl.”ChatGPT
“He has built a legislative identity focused on veterans, infrastructure, and healthcare access.”
GeminiRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Unclear or generic attribute
65“Proposing tax cuts for first-time homebuyers, expanding the Child Tax Credit, and streamlining bureaucracy to address the state's housing shortage.”
Gemini“His proposals include reducing utility and housing costs, lowering prescription-drug expenses, and providing relief from fuel costs.”ChatGPT
Raised by 3 of 4 models.
John E. Sununu
Experience & qualifications
73“Sununu is a seasoned federal lawmaker who has previously navigated the legislative process in both chambers of Congress.”
Gemini“He previously served in the U.S. House and Senate, giving him direct experience with federal legislation.”ChatGPT
“John E. Sununu’s combines earlier Senate service with a longer career in politics and business.”
PerplexityRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Unclear or generic attribute
66“Supports measures that keep taxes down—including cuts targeting tips, overtime, and Social Security recipients—to support small businesses and the tourism economy.”
Gemini“Prioritizes jobs, economic growth, reducing inflation, and lowering costs.”ChatGPT
“Sununu stresses lower taxes, competition, deregulation and fiscal discipline.”
PerplexityRaised by 3 of 4 models.
Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?
1% of what AI says about Pappas is about the issues voters rank highest
1% of what AI says about Sununu is about the issues voters rank highest
| What voters care about | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu |
|---|---|---|
| cost of living | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| healthcare, social security | 751 mentions · 1 models | 651 mentions · 1 models |
| threats to democracy | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.
What AI says voters care about
Top issues
- 1.Cost of living
- 2.Healthcare
- 3.Social security
- 4.Threats to democracy
Party trusted more on
- EconomyDemocrats
- HealthcareDemocrats
- ImmigrationSplit
Enthusiasm edge
Split. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.
Polls the AI models cite
As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.
| Poll | Dates | Pappas | Sununu | Cited by | Vs reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin average | Sep 27, 2026 | 48.2 | 42.8 | Real polling reference | |
| New York Times/Siena | — | 50 | 45 | Perplexity | within 3 pts |
| University of New Hampshire | — | 50 | 42 | Perplexity | within 3 pts |
| Saint Anselm CollegeLV | Oct 19-20 | 50 | 43 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| Saint Anselm College | Oct 16-20 | 50 | 43 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| National Public Affairs | Oct 12 | 50 | 45 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
Where the answers came from
Photos: Chris Pappas (Public domain (official House photo)); John E. Sununu (Public domain (official Senate photo, 2003-09)), via Wikimedia Commons.
This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).
Cite this
Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "New Hampshire Senate: What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/new-hampshire-senate
Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.