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Kansas Senate
Senate · Kansas · Cook rating: Toss-up
Moved to Toss-up in October in a state Republicans usually hold
Adam Hamilton
Roger Marshall
From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker
40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026
Sentiment gap
Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100
Hamilton +4 more positive
Name recall
Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate
Hamilton 8 of 12, first 5
Marshall 8 of 12, first 3
AI vs Cook rating
Cook Political Report rating, Toss-up, against the AI models' lean
AI and Cook agree
Model agreement
How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one
50%agree
2 of 4 assistants
0 Hamilton2 toss-up2 Marshall
Who the AI models favor
Of 4 AI models asked about the Kansas Senate race today, 2 say Roger Marshall is narrowly favored over Adam Hamilton and 2 describe it as a toss-up.
Hamilton
Democrat
Marshall
Republican
- 0 favor Hamilton
- 2 toss-up
- 2 favor Marshall
The assistants are split: 0 favor Hamilton, 2 favor Marshall, 2 call it a toss-up.
Each assistant’s call
“the polling is extremely close, while independent forecasting models still give Marshall an advantage”
“currently projected as a toss-up, with no clear favorite”
“while the public opinion polls suggest a neck-and-neck race, political forecasting models and markets lean toward Marshall retaining his seat”
“It's a toss-up, and forecasts disagree.”
Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”
Polls these assistants cite range from Roger Marshall +5 (null, September) to Adam Hamilton +2 (Emerson College/Nexstar, Sept 15-16) (5 different polls and averages).
Changed since Oct 22, 2026
- ChatGPTMarshall
PerplexityToss-up
Strengths and weaknesses AI cites
Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.
Adam Hamilton
Personal & professional background
69“A longtime United Methodist pastor and leader of a large Kansas City-area congregation.”ChatGPT
“Hamilton is well-known in the region as the founding and senior pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection in Leawood (the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States).”
Gemini“Adam Hamilton—a prominent Methodist pastor.”
Google AI ModeRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Roger Marshall
Experience & qualifications
71“His experience includes congressional service, and he serves on Senate committees covering agriculture, finance, health and the budget.”ChatGPT
“Marshall practiced medicine in rural Great Bend, Kansas, for over 25 years, delivering more than 5,000 babies.”
Gemini“Before entering politics, Roger Marshall was an obstetrician practicing in Great Bend, Kansas. He transitioned to federal politics, first serving in the U.S. House of Representatives and later winning election to the U.S. Senate in 2020.”
Google AI ModeRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?
3% of what AI says about Hamilton is about the issues voters rank highest
2% of what AI says about Marshall is about the issues voters rank highest
| What voters care about | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| cost of living, economy | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| agriculture | 632 mentions · 1 models | 381 mentions · 1 models |
| immigration enforcement | 551 mentions · 1 models | 551 mentions · 1 models |
Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.
What AI says voters care about
Top issues
- 1.Cost of living
- 2.Economy
- 3.Agriculture
- 4.Immigration enforcement
Party trusted more on
- EconomySplit
- HealthcareDemocrats
- ImmigrationRepublicans
Enthusiasm edge
Democrats. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.
Polls the AI models cite
As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.
| Poll | Dates | Hamilton | Marshall | Cited by | Vs reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin average | Oct 2, 2026 | 45.8 | 46 | Real polling reference | |
| Decision Desk HQ average | Oct 21 | 46.2 | 45.8 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| InsiderAdvantageLV | Oct 9-10 | 47.5 | 46.7 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| Emerson College/NexstarLV | Sept 15-16 | 45 | 43 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| September | 44 | 49 | Perplexity | 4.8 pts more Marshall | |
| — | 45 | 43 | Perplexity | within 3 pts |
Where the answers came from
Photos: Adam Hamilton (CC BY 4.0 (Working Preacher)); Roger Marshall (Public domain (official Senate photo)), via Wikimedia Commons.
This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).
Cite this
Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "Kansas Senate: What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/kansas-senate
Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.