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NY-17 (Hudson Valley)
House · New York · Cook rating: Toss-up
Republican-held seat that Harris won in 2024
Cait Conley
Mike Lawler
From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker
40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026
Sentiment gap
Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100
Conley +4 more positive
Name recall
Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate
Conley 9 of 12, first 5
Lawler 11 of 12, first 6
AI vs Cook rating
Cook Political Report rating, Toss-up, against the AI models' lean
AI leans more Democratic than Cook
Model agreement
How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one
67%agree
2 of 3 assistants · 1 declined
2 Conley1 toss-up0 Lawler1 no call
Who the AI models favor
Of 4 AI models asked about NY-17 today, 2 say Cait Conley is narrowly favored over Mike Lawler, 1 calls it a toss-up and 1 declines to assess it.
Conley
Democrat
Lawler
Republican
- 2 favor Conley
- 1 toss-up
- 0 favor Lawler
- 1 no call
Two of four assistants favor Conley.
Each assistant’s call
“Public polling is close and split, while several forecasting models and race-rating services give Conley or Democrats an edge of varying size. That is different from a consensus”
Google AI ModeDeclined“Election forecasting models currently lean toward Cait Conley, giving her a narrow-to-moderate advantage”
“Cait Conley is narrowly favored, but NY-17 remains competitive.”
Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”
Polls these assistants cite range from Mike Lawler +5 (co/efficient, July 20-22) to Cait Conley +6 (FM3 Research (House Majority PAC), June 27-July 1) (6 different polls and averages).
Changed since Oct 22, 2026
GeminiConley- Overall leanToss-upLean D
Strengths and weaknesses AI cites
Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.
Cait Conley
Unclear or generic attribute
73“Conley has defended her tenure by noting major counterterrorism successes, such as the elimination of the head of ISIS.”
Google AI Mode“Centers her economic message on affordability for working families. She proposes holding corporate utility monopolies and large companies accountable for high electric and living bills”
Gemini“Cait Conley’s strongest credentials are military and national-security leadership.”
PerplexityRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Experience & qualifications
69“Conley is a political newcomer and combat veteran who served six tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, earning three Bronze Stars.”
Google AI Mode“Supporters trust her military background and professional discipline as a stark contrast to traditional career politicians.”
Gemini“Conley’s are her West Point education, combat-veteran record and national-security experience in the Biden administration.”
PerplexityRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Mike Lawler
Experience & qualifications
73“As the sitting representative since 2023 and a former New York State Assemblyman, Lawler holds the institutional advantages of office.”
Gemini“He has served in Congress since 2023, can point to actual votes and bills, and has experience navigating federal legislation.”ChatGPT
“Lawler’s main strengths are incumbency, experience and the clout that comes with holding the seat.”
PerplexityRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Constituent service
69“He grew up in Rockland County and has represented the district for several years, giving him an existing congressional and constituent-service record.”ChatGPT
“His office has resolved over 10,000 constituent cases and secured more than $120 million in funding for the district.”
Google AI Mode“Lawler can point to his record and local presence.”
PerplexityRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Independence & bipartisanship
67“A 2026 Bridge Grades report placed him sixth among House members evaluated for collaborative legislative activity.”ChatGPT
“Lawler emphasizes his legislative record and bipartisan efforts to handle affordability.”
Google AI Mode“Lawler emphasizes bipartisan credentials and has drawn some Democratic endorsements.”
PerplexityRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Unclear or generic attribute
66“Lawler has supported tax incentives for technology and data center developers to boost economic growth, opposing data center moratoriums.”
Google AI Mode“Lawler highlights the increase in the federal state-and-local-tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 in the 2025 tax law.”ChatGPT
“Focuses heavily on fiscal responsibility, lowering inflation, and reducing regulatory burdens to spur economic growth. He generally opposes broad tax hikes”
GeminiRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Healthcare policy
68“He has also introduced bipartisan legislation to help address critical workforce shortages by retaining foreign-educated doctors in underserved communities.”
Gemini“Lawler pointed out his vote to extend enhanced tax credits for the Affordable Care Act (ACA).”
Google AI ModeRaised by 2 of 4 models.
Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?
2% of what AI says about Conley is about the issues voters rank highest
2% of what AI says about Lawler is about the issues voters rank highest
| What voters care about | Cait Conley | Mike Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| threats to democracy | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| cost of living, economy | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| immigration | 642 mentions · 2 models | 623 mentions · 2 models |
Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.
What AI says voters care about
Top issues
- 1.Threats to democracy
- 2.Cost of living
- 3.Economy
- 4.Immigration
Party trusted more on
- EconomySplit
- ImmigrationSplit
Enthusiasm edge
Democrats. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.
Polls the AI models cite
As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.
| Poll | Dates | Conley | Lawler | Cited by | Vs reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College (independent poll) | Oct 1, 2026 | 48 | 46 | Real polling reference | |
| Emerson College/PIX11LV | Sept 27-29 | 48 | 46 | ChatGPT | within 3 pts |
| McLaughlin & Associates (Lawler campaign)LV | Sept 28-30 | 47 | 50 | ChatGPT | 5 pts more Lawler |
| co/efficientLV | July 20-22 | 45 | 50 | ChatGPT | 7 pts more Lawler |
| FM3 Research (House Majority PAC)LV | June 27-July 1 | 51 | 45 | ChatGPT | 4 pts more Conley |
| Emerson College/PIX11 | — | 48 | 46 | Gemini | within 3 pts |
Where the answers came from
Photos: Cait Conley (Public domain (DHS)); Mike Lawler (Public domain (official House photo)), via Wikimedia Commons.
This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).
Cite this
Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "NY-17 (Hudson Valley): What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/ny-17
Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.