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PA-8 (Scranton / Wilkes-Barre)
House · Pennsylvania · Cook rating: Toss-up
Working-class swing seat in northeastern Pennsylvania
Paige Cognetti
Rob Bresnahan Jr.
From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker
40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026
Sentiment gap
Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100
Cognetti +9 more positive
Name recall
Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate
Cognetti 10 of 12, first 2
Bresnahan 11 of 12, first 9
AI vs Cook rating
Cook Political Report rating, Toss-up, against the AI models' lean
AI leans more Democratic than Cook
Model agreement
How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one
67%agree
2 of 3 assistants · 1 declined
2 Cognetti1 toss-up0 Bresnahan1 no call
Who the AI models favor
Of 4 AI models asked about PA-8 today, 2 say Paige Cognetti is narrowly favored over Rob Bresnahan Jr., 1 calls it a toss-up and 1 declines to assess it.
Cognetti
Democrat
Bresnahan
Republican
- 2 favor Cognetti
- 1 toss-up
- 0 favor Bresnahan
- 1 no call
Two of four assistants favor Cognetti.
Each assistant’s call
“the evidence is mixed. The latest poll has Paige Cognetti ahead, and several current models give her an advantage, while other models continue to treat the race as essentially even or favor Bresnahan”
Google AI ModeDeclined“point to a competitive contest with a distinct advantage for Cognetti”
“Paige Cognetti is slightly favored overall, but PA-8 remains a toss-up”
Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”
Polls these assistants cite range from Paige Cognetti +2 (Lake Research, released June 23) to Paige Cognetti +4 (Emerson College, Oct 12-14) (3 different polls and averages).
Strengths and weaknesses AI cites
Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.
Paige Cognetti
Personal & professional background
71“She previously served as a special assistant to the Pennsylvania Auditor General and as a member of the Scranton School District Board.”
Google AI Mode“her background as the Mayor of Scranton, where she positioned herself as an independent-minded reformer focused on balancing budgets and fixing local municipal finances”
Gemini“Cognetti has an MBA from Harvard Business School and an undergraduate degree from the University of Oregon.”ChatGPT
Raised by 4 of 4 models.
Infrastructure & local projects
72“Her administration reports receiving $155 million in state and federal grants for infrastructure and quality-of-life improvements.”ChatGPT
“Supporters point to infrastructure improvements, including thousands of building permits and street signs.”
Google AI Mode“focuses on lowering local utility and infrastructure costs”
GeminiRaised by 3 of 4 models.
Rob Bresnahan Jr.
Personal & professional background
69“As a former CEO of a union electrical contracting firm, he strongly supports technical trade programs and "earn-as-you-learn" apprenticeships.”
Google AI Mode“He previously led Kuharchik Construction, his family’s electrical contracting business, and founded a real-estate development company.”ChatGPT
“Bresnahan has framed his background as a small business owner around cutting red tape and unleashing job growth”
GeminiRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?
34% of what AI says about Cognetti is about the issues voters rank highest
38% of what AI says about Bresnahan is about the issues voters rank highest
| What voters care about | Paige Cognetti | Rob Bresnahan Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| cost of living | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| healthcare | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| congressional stock trading | 6421 mentions · 4 models | 5526 mentions · 4 models |
| government integrity | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.
What AI says voters care about
Top issues
- 1.Cost of living
- 2.Healthcare
- 3.Congressional stock trading
- 4.Government integrity
Party trusted more on
- EconomyDemocrats
- HealthcareDemocrats
- ImmigrationSplit
Enthusiasm edge
Even. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.
Polls the AI models cite
As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.
| Poll | Dates | Cognetti | Bresnahan | Cited by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegeLV | Oct 12-14 | 52 | 48 | ChatGPT |
| Lake Research | released June 23 | 47 | 45 | Google AI Mode |
| LV | mid-2026 | 47 | 45 | Gemini |
Where the answers came from
Photos: Paige Cognetti (CC BY 2.0 (US DOL / Liz Roll)); Rob Bresnahan Jr. (Public domain (official House photo)), via Wikimedia Commons.
This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).
Cite this
Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "PA-8 (Scranton / Wilkes-Barre): What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/pa-8
Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.