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OH-9 (Toledo)
House · Ohio · Cook rating: Toss-up
Democratic-held seat redrawn to favor Republicans
Marcy Kaptur
Derek Merrin
From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker
40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026
Sentiment gap
Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100
Kaptur +2 more positive
Name recall
Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate
Kaptur 5 of 12, first 5
Merrin 5 of 12, first 0
AI vs Cook rating
Cook Political Report rating, Toss-up, against the AI models' lean
AI and Cook agree
Model agreement
How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one
33%agree
1 of 3 assistants · 1 declined
1 Kaptur1 toss-up1 Merrin1 no call
Who the AI models favor
Of 4 AI models asked about OH-9 today, 1 says Derek Merrin is narrowly favored, 1 says Marcy Kaptur is narrowly favored, 1 calls it a toss-up and 1 declines to assess it.
Kaptur
Democrat
Merrin
Republican
- 1 favor Kaptur
- 1 toss-up
- 1 favor Merrin
- 1 no call
The assistants are split: 1 favor Kaptur, 1 favor Merrin, 1 call it a toss-up.
Each assistant’s call
“The current polling and forecast evidence shows a close race, with the leading published model projecting a narrow Republican advantage.”
Google AI ModeDeclined“election forecasters and prediction markets generally favor Marcy Kaptur to win ... polling averages and individual polls indicate a competitive contest”
“Forecasts disagree, so OH-9 is best described as a toss-up.”
Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”
Polls these assistants cite range from Derek Merrin +4 (McLaughlin & Associates, April 20) to Tied (DCCC Analytics Department, Sept 23) (4 different polls and averages).
Changed since Oct 22, 2026
- ChatGPTMerrin
Strengths and weaknesses AI cites
Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.
Marcy Kaptur
Legislative experience & record
70“Marcy Kaptur is the longest-serving woman in the history of the United States Congress and serves as the dean of Ohio's congressional delegation.”
Gemini“Kaptur has decades of experience in Congress and serves on the House Appropriations Committee, which helps shape federal spending.”ChatGPT
“Kaptur is the longest-serving woman in congressional history (serving 22 terms since 1983).”
Google AI ModeRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Derek Merrin
Not raised by at least 2 models yet.
Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?
3% of what AI says about Kaptur is about the issues voters rank highest
2% of what AI says about Merrin is about the issues voters rank highest
| What voters care about | Marcy Kaptur | Derek Merrin |
|---|---|---|
| cost of living, jobs and manufacturing, gas prices | 542 mentions · 1 models | 521 mentions · 1 models |
| redistricting | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.
What AI says voters care about
Top issues
- 1.Cost of living
- 2.Jobs and manufacturing
- 3.Gas prices
- 4.Redistricting
Party trusted more on
- EconomyRepublicans
- HealthcareDemocrats
- ImmigrationRepublicans
Enthusiasm edge
Split. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.
Polls the AI models cite
As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.
| Poll | Dates | Kaptur | Merrin | Cited by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Analytics DepartmentLV | Sept 23 | 48 | 48 | ChatGPT |
| McLaughlin & AssociatesLV | April 20 | 43 | 47 | ChatGPT |
| PollingSource average | — | 45.5 | 47.5 | Perplexity |
| DCCC | September | 48 | 48 | ChatGPT |
Where the answers came from
Photos: Marcy Kaptur (Public domain (official House photo)); Derek Merrin (CC BY 4.0 (SchOg)), via Wikimedia Commons.
This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).
Cite this
Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "OH-9 (Toledo): What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/oh-9
Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.