Ad Intelligence: see how your brand shows up in ChatGPT ads. Learn more →
WI-3 (western Wisconsin)
House · Wisconsin · Cook rating: Toss-up
Rural Midwest swing district
Rebecca Cooke
Derrick Van Orden
From the EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker
40 AI answers from 4 models · collected Oct 23, 2026
Sentiment gap
Average sentiment of answers about each candidate, 1 to 100
Cooke +12 more positive
Name recall
Who the assistants name in the 3 questions that mention neither candidate
Cooke 11 of 12, first 6
Van Orden 10 of 12, first 5
AI vs Cook rating
Cook Political Report rating, Toss-up, against the AI models' lean
AI leans more Democratic than Cook
Model agreement
How many assistants that made a call agree on the same one
67%agree
2 of 3 assistants · 1 declined
2 Cooke1 toss-up0 Van Orden1 no call
Who the AI models favor
Of 4 AI models asked about WI-3 today, 2 say Rebecca Cooke is narrowly favored over Derrick Van Orden, 1 calls it a toss-up and 1 declines to assess it.
Cooke
Democrat
Van Orden
Republican
- 2 favor Cooke
- 1 toss-up
- 0 favor Van Orden
- 1 no call
Two of four assistants favor Cooke.
Each assistant’s call
“The public polling archive shows Cooke ahead in the surveys it contains, while independent forecast models offer different assessments of the race. The evidence is not sufficient to treat the outcome as settled.”
Google AI ModeDeclined“characterize the race as tightly contested or leaning slightly toward the Democratic challenger”
“Rebecca Cooke is favored, though the forecasts vary on how strongly.”
Each assistant was asked: “Who is favored to win, and what do polls and forecasts say?”
Polls these assistants cite range from Rebecca Cooke +1 (null, February) to Rebecca Cooke +4 (FM3 Research (House Majority PAC), June 20-25) (5 different polls and averages).
Changed since Oct 22, 2026
- ChatGPTToss-up
Strengths and weaknesses AI cites
Attributes raised by at least 2 of the 4 models, with a quote checked against the original answer.
Rebecca Cooke
Healthcare policy
69“Supports broader Medicare coverage, lower prescription costs and more assistance with insurance premiums.”ChatGPT
“She aims to build trust by advocating for a low-cost public option, expanding Medicare to cover vision, dental, and hearing, and bringing back Affordable Care Act tax credits.”
Google AI Mode“Proponents trust her focus on local economic issues, health care costs, and agricultural stability.”
GeminiRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Ideology & policy platform
65“Cooke's platform emphasizes affordability, expanded health coverage, support for workers and family farms, and stronger environmental protections.”ChatGPT
“Cooke frames herself as an authentic working-class voice who understands the economic struggles of everyday Wisconsinites.”
Gemini“Cooke is emphasizing a bipartisan, working-class background as a small business owner and waitress to sway moderate voters looking for a change from Washington gridlock.”
Google AI ModeRaised by 4 of 4 models.
Unclear or generic attribute
66“Emphasizes lowering everyday costs for working families and retirees. Wants to crack down on corporate price gouging, particularly on groceries and fuel.”ChatGPT
“Focuses heavily on the affordability crisis for working families, small businesses, and rural agricultural communities.”
GeminiRaised by 2 of 4 models.
Derrick Van Orden
Legislative experience & record
70“His background as a retired Navy SEAL who served 26 years and multiple overseas tours resonates strongly with the district's veteran and working-class demographics.”
Google AI Mode“Van Orden served 26 years in the U.S. Navy, retiring as a Navy SEAL Senior Chief Petty Officer with five combat deployments and service across multiple global regions.”
Gemini“A former U.S. Navy SEAL with 26 years of military service, Van Orden has represented WI-3 since 2023.”ChatGPT
Raised by 4 of 4 models.
Does AI tie each candidate to what voters care about?
24% of what AI says about Cooke is about the issues voters rank highest
21% of what AI says about Van Orden is about the issues voters rank highest
| What voters care about | Rebecca Cooke | Derrick Van Orden |
|---|---|---|
| cost of living | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| immigration | Not linked by AI | Not linked by AI |
| agriculture and trade | 668 mentions · 2 models | 628 mentions · 2 models |
| healthcare | 6916 mentions · 4 models | 5814 mentions · 4 models |
Top issues come from the AI answers about what voters care about. Scores are average sentiment, 1 to 100, of what AI says about each candidate on that issue.
What AI says voters care about
Top issues
- 1.Cost of living
- 2.Immigration
- 3.Agriculture and trade
- 4.Healthcare
Party trusted more on
- EconomySplit
- HealthcareDemocrats
- ImmigrationRepublicans
Enthusiasm edge
Democrats. Which side’s voters most models say are more motivated to turn out.
Polls the AI models cite
As stated in each AI answer. Not independently verified, and some are averages rather than single polls.
| Poll | Dates | Cooke | Van Orden | Cited by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research (House Majority PAC)LV | June 20-25 | 50 | 46 | ChatGPT |
| Impact ResearchLV | May 26-31 | 50 | 46 | ChatGPT |
| February | 49 | 48 | ChatGPT | |
| October 2025 | 44 | 42 | ChatGPT | |
| June | 50 | 46 | ChatGPT |
Where the answers came from
Photos: Rebecca Cooke (CC BY 3.0 (UpNorthNews)); Derrick Van Orden (Public domain (PD-USGov-Congress)), via Wikimedia Commons.
This tracker shows what AI assistants say when asked the same neutral questions every day. It is not a poll, a forecast or an endorsement. AI answers can be wrong or out of date, and poll numbers are reported as the AI stated them. Candidate photos are from Wikimedia Commons under their stated licences. Party icons: Font Awesome Free (CC BY 4.0).
Cite this
Source: EvidentlyAEO AI Midterms Tracker, "WI-3 (western Wisconsin): What AI Models Say," data as of Oct 23, 2026. https://evidentlyaeo.com/election-2026/wi-3
Free to quote and screenshot with this credit and a link.